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December 7, 2023
The U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Fifth National Climate Assessment reports that climate change is altering the ocean and its ecosystems in unprecedented ways. Increasing greenhouse gas emissions are warming the ocean and leading to significant consequences such as rising sea levels, more extreme weather events, ocean acidification, and the loss of marine biodiversity. All these changes will have lasting impacts across the globe. Over three billion people depend on the ocean and its biodiversity for their livelihoods, and all living things depend on it to regulate the climate. Temperatures on Earth would be significantly hotter without the ocean, as it absorbs a quarter of all carbon dioxide emissions and captures 90 percent of excess heat from rising emissions.
This year’s Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides important opportunities to identify solutions and pathways to reach the 2015 Paris Agreement's goal of keeping global temperature rise significantly below two degrees Celsius (3.6°F) from pre-industrial levels. As the planet’s largest active carbon reservoir, the ocean plays a critical role in combating climate change. Due to its importance in meeting goals set by the Paris Agreement, the ocean is a key topic of conversation at COP28. Recent national and international plans for ocean resilience such as the Ocean Breakthroughs, the Alliance of Small Island States’ chair statement on COP28, and the Ocean Pavilion’s COP28 Dubai Declaration showcase how oceans can take center stage in Dubai this year.
At the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Leaders Forum in October 2023, IUCN President Razan Al Mubarak announced the launch of Ocean Breakthroughs, a UNFCCC initiative to build healthy oceans. The program outlines targets in five key ocean sectors, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 35 percent and reach a net-zero future by 2050. The five key sectors identified are:
The newly-formed UNFCCC initiative aims to highlight ocean-based climate solutions that can be included in discussions of the global stocktake—an inventory of countries’ climate actions to date—at COP28.
Resilient, healthy marine ecosystems are not only important for human activities such as fishing and tourism but also for climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. The marine conservation section of the Ocean Breakthroughs initiative focuses on achieving the goal of restoring and conserving at least 30 percent of ocean waters by 2030 through at least $72 billion in funding. The Ocean Breakthroughs initiative also highlights the importance of resilient aquatic food systems and calls for at least $4 billion in funding each year by 2030 to support resilience efforts. Although coastal tourism depends on healthy marine ecosystems, it can also contribute to their degradation. The “Breakthrough” for coastal tourism is still being discussed, but will likely focus on ways to encourage sustainable development in the industry.
Ocean-based renewable energy, such as offshore wind, provides a promising pathway for reaching energy-efficiency objectives and achieving emission-reduction goals. This section of the Ocean Breakthroughs initiative aims for the installation of at least 380 gigawatts of offshore capacity by 2030, along with targets and measures for net-positive biodiversity outcomes. These goals are shared by the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA), which was launched at COP27 and aims to accelerate offshore wind power deployment. GOWA has made some significant advances in 2023. However, the United States recently faced some setbacks in its domestic goals with the cancellation of two offshore projects that would have contributed to over five gigawatts of renewable energy.
Shipping accounts for nearly 3 percent of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, with 99 percent of the industry using fossil fuels. Under a “business-as-usual” scenario, the shipping sector’s share of greenhouse gas emissions could reach 17 percent or more by 2050. The Ocean Breakthroughs initiative aims to make zero-emission fuels cover 5 percent of the shipping industry’s energy demands by 2030. The program also aims to retrain and upskill 450,000 seafarers as well as move at least 30 percent of global trade through ports that are adapting to climate change by reducing their emissions and increasing their resilience.
While these ocean-related topics will be relevant at numerous COP28 events, Ocean Breakthroughs will be front and center at the COP28 event, “Powering Ocean Breakthroughs with 100% Sustainable Ocean Management,” on December 9.
Resilient oceans are particularly important for Small Island Developing States (SIDS). These countries are among the most vul
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